Top seed outlook: On paper, the Midwest seems to be the most open of the four regions, but we nevertheless provide No. 1 North Carolina the best chances, with a 35 percent probability of reaching the Final Four and also an 18 percent probability of appearing in the national championship match. Those chances are 8 percentage points lower compared to any other No. 1 team in the area, though, and for good reason: North Carolina’s crime is dependent on turning every play right into a fast break. The Tar Heels fight to get into the free-throw lineup and give up a slew of shots along the perimeter, which, in a slowed-down, half-court matchup, can be quite problematic.
After getting chased by Duke to start the season, No. 2 Kentucky has caught fire in recent weeks while finding balance on both ends of the ground and largely abstaining from the 3-point line. No. 3 Houston, meanwhile, is in the middle of its very best season since Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon were revolutionizing school basketball, and they boast a defense which ranks among the very best together and inside the perimeter.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 5 Auburn. Whenever the Tigers steamrolled Tennessee 84-64 in Sunday’s SEC title game, it probably got the attention of a lot of bracket-pickers. That was not a one off — Auburn also conquer Tennessee eight days before, part of a string of eight consecutive wins for the Tigers, and 10 in their past 11 games. With an explosive offense (No. 8 in KenPom efficacy ) that acquired more of its points from downtown compared to every other team in the NCAA field, Auburn can heat up in a hurry. We give the Tigers nearly a coin-flip’s likelihood of making the Sweet 16 — and an extremely strong 37 percent likelihood of beating top-seeded North Carolina if the Tar Heels are waiting for Auburn there. The only kryptonite might be a hypothetical regional-final matchup with No. 2 seed Kentucky, which beat the Tigers from 27 in late February to sweep their season collection.
Don’t bet : No. 4 Kansas. The Jayhawks went to the year ranked No. 1 in the AP’s preseason poll, and they appeared to validate that the option by starting the season 10-0. But a 15-9 record (plus some key injuries) since then have cast doubt on Kansas’s NCAA Tournament potential. This really is a well-balanced group, but to say it doesn’t shoot well from the outside is a understatement — watch KU’s 3-for-18 functionality from profound in Saturday’s Big 12 ouster against Iowa State. Add a negative draw that puts them onto a potential second-round crash course with Auburn (see above), and we give the Jayhawks only an 8 percent chance of making from the Midwest with their championship hopes undamaged.
Cinderella see: No. 11 Ohio State. In case a Big Ten team which has made 11 Final Fours can be a Cinderella, then you’re considering it in those Buckeyes. (Hey, the committee’s increasing trend to con underwhelming power-conference colleges this manner really contrasts with the definition) OSU went only 18-13 throughout the regular season, was defeated its second Big Ten tournament game also contains nearly two times as many losses as wins since New Year’s. Why are the Buckeyes a potential Cinderella? Despite the seed, this is still a dangerous group, one that ranks 27th from Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive ratings and contains star forwards Kaleb Wesson back out of suspension. So maybe they will provide Big 12 champ Iowa State trouble. But mainly this tells you something about the other prospective Cinderellas in this area: Seton Hall got a very tough first-round matchup with underseeded Wofford; none of the other low seeds here are world-beaters. That leaves the Buckeyes, a team which did all it could to play its way from this tournament, but has some mad potential regardless.
Player to watch: Cameron Johnson, UNC On a group that doesn’t hoist a ton of shots from the perimeter, Johnson is as deadly as they are come. Observing an injury-riddled effort in which he barely made more than one third of his appearances from beyond the arc, the grad student is canning 46.5 percent of his attempts, which positions within the top 25 nationally.
Johnson has thrived in North Carolina’s every-possession-is-a-transition-opportunity scheme this season. He’s blossomed into one of the greatest scorers in the ACC, standing between the 85th and 100th percentiles in scoring efficacy in transitionoff displays and on spot-ups.
Johnson has elevated his game in conference play, boasting the ACC’s top offensive evaluation (132.5) and accurate shooting percentage (64.6). Suddenly, a player who wasn’t viewed as a guaranteed professional now projects for a second-round pick.
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Washington over No. 8 Utah State (49 percent); No. 10 Seton Hall over No. 7 Wofford (37 percent); No. 11 Ohio State over No. 6 Iowa State (33 percent)
Check out our latest March Madness predictions.
CORRECTION (March 18, 2019, 3:10 p.m.): A former version of this story misstated the amount of Sweet 16s created by Villanova in recent seasons. Although the Wildcats have reached the NCAA Tournament’s”third round” in four of the previous five seasons, that round was the Round of 32 before 2016 because of NCAA naming conventions.

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